Voit lisätä twiitteihisi sijainnin, esimerkiksi kaupungin tai tarkemman paikan, verkosta ja kolmannen osapuolen sovellusten kautta. Halutessasi voit poistaa twiittisi sijaintihistorian myöhemmin. Lue lisää
"[Peter Turchin's theories] have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari." - From The Atlantic 'Megahistories' - Definition: Pop historical works that sound great unless you actually know enough history to assess them.
The reference is this: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/ … The entire article is deeply frustrating, from the claim that "One of Turchin's most unwelcome conclusions it that complex societies arise through war" an idea that was in print long before Turchin...
...that idea, presented as somehow Turchin's genius goes back to - and I am not kidding - Heraclitus of Ephesus (d. 475 BC) and was put into modern scholarly form no later than L. Keeley's War Before Civilization (1997). But sure, tell me more about how you can math the history.
The idea that he can accurately and mathematically track "a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions" with any precision over 10,000 years...
...is just plain laughable. The direction and extent of those changes is a point of real argument among actual experts (of which Turchin is not) for the Roman Empire, which is both 1) only 2,000 years ago and 2) without question the best attested society that old.
And the idea that Turchin is " filling a historiographical niche left empty by academic historians" is just evidence that Graeme Wood doesn't know much about what historians are doing. There are lots of wide-angle histories of all sorts of things...
...I've recommended a number on the blog! The 'niche' Turchin is filling is 'baseless speculation that sounds sophisticated to people who know little about the matter.' Sure, historians are not filling that niche. Nor should we.
<sarcasm> I just love the modern trend of hyperbole. Megahistory—much bigger than plain old history!</sarcasm>
one million histories
As @Peter_Turchin just said a few minutes ago, he's "just scientist".
If you read Ages of Discord (or Ultra Society) he provides tools for seeing dynamic systems in histories. Then you can draw your own megahistory narratives.
But the issue is with the underlying data itself. The temptation in so many of these 'megahistories' is to develop a narrative based on personal biases or on very recent history, which is then simply projected backwards over vast periods for which the data doesn't exist.
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