Bret Devereaux

It's interesting to think the United States will have two single-term presidents in a row.

Has Biden promised not to run for a second term? If not, I'd still think the highest probability outcome, given incumbent advantage, is 2 Biden terms. I mean, for health, age reasons, I wouldn't give it better than coinflip. But like, 40% where a lot of outcomes split the rest.

You are also a lot more bullish about Biden's first term ending with literally one single meaningful accomplishment than I am

Sure, but even if it doesn't - the economy is likely to be better in four years than now. Incumbents with economic recoveries tend to do very well electorally!

This suggests we can also add "the GOP not succeeding in their efforts to utterly poison the economy under Biden" to the list of things you're comparatively bullish about

Things like this imo constitute a flag fairly openly plantedhttps://twitter.com/neoliberal_dad/status/1326970991394906112?s=19 …

Yes, deeply ill-considered choice though there is more than one seat on the Fed's board of governors.