Bret Devereaux

It's interesting to think the United States will have two single-term presidents in a row.

Has Biden promised not to run for a second term? If not, I'd still think the highest probability outcome, given incumbent advantage, is 2 Biden terms. I mean, for health, age reasons, I wouldn't give it better than coinflip. But like, 40% where a lot of outcomes split the rest.

You are also a lot more bullish about Biden's first term ending with literally one single meaningful accomplishment than I am

Sure, but even if it doesn't - the economy is likely to be better in four years than now. Incumbents with economic recoveries tend to do very well electorally!