While I am pretty sure that the PRC is making a strategic error where costs will far outweigh gains, that makes me no happier that it looks very much like the Hong Kong we've known (me only from afar) is coming to an end. Freedom retreats; the world gets a little darker.
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What Andre Beaufre described as a 'false note.' It both triggers human risk/change aversion (we grow comfortable with the evils we know, but are shocked by the ones we don't) but also makes the false note-maker seem unpredictable, which causes other states to react...
...which tends to limit the false-note-maker's freedom of action. Another way to put it is that it 'spends down' a lot of soft-power to make a 'false note' like this. PRC has spent years building up - at great expense - soft power.
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And the PRC's global strategy relies on soft power, at least in the near term, because they cannot project hard power. This degrades that soft power (as you see with shifting political attitudes towards the PRC over last two years), jeopardizing boarder PRC strategic aims. fin.
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Very interesting, thank you! I wonder why they're pushing so hard now, then. Also with the India border conflicts. Perhaps the tactical opportunity of the world's distraction with COVID was too tempting.
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