In an ideal world, we'd have for Greek and Roman shields what we have for Gallic ones (also Iberian caetra) - a few sets of bosses where the rivets still connect to the handles, giving a fixed, clean way to measure thickness at the core.
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There's room for doubt about the 'when' of the Polybian legion. And reconstructing the history of the lower classes of pedites is probably impossible. Did requirements shift? Lower qualifications? As w/ Rich, "Supposed Roman Manpower Shortage (1983)...we don't know.
I ended up running numbers for a range of possible prevalence cases to cope with the uncertainty. Ran figures for a legion if the h. inf. was 1/3 loricatus, 40%, 1/2 and 2/3rds.
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In practice, given the (vanishing) evidence for the pectoral, probably those are in chronological sequence as we move through the second century and the lorica hamata slowly replaces all of the other common armors. But no way to reconstruct exact timing.
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I'm actually working on an article that addresses some of these issues w/ the lorica hamata esp. Hope to have it into peer review somewhere soonish.
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