Yes, I'd guess approximately 10lbs might be about right. Maybe a little less, maybe a little more, varying upon thickness, method of construction, material, and actual size/shape.
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Complicated problem. Polybius' numbers clearly match what we get for the first class of pedites, but serious issues (Polybian legion set in 216, but census requirements match Livy using sextantal as which only comes around in 211.
There's room for doubt about the 'when' of the Polybian legion. And reconstructing the history of the lower classes of pedites is probably impossible. Did requirements shift? Lower qualifications? As w/ Rich, "Supposed Roman Manpower Shortage (1983)...we don't know.
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I ended up running numbers for a range of possible prevalence cases to cope with the uncertainty. Ran figures for a legion if the h. inf. was 1/3 loricatus, 40%, 1/2 and 2/3rds.
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In practice, given the (vanishing) evidence for the pectoral, probably those are in chronological sequence as we move through the second century and the lorica hamata slowly replaces all of the other common armors. But no way to reconstruct exact timing.
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