I refer NOT to plate, only your original tweet "Mail armor is worn over leather or quilted linen. It actually IS good protection for arrows." Plate over mail over gambeson stops arrows. Mostly cold. See Tod's workshop on youtube for brilliant comparative test
...because the mail can shift around to disperse impact. Testing shows square hits penetrate consistently, but testing is often against rigid targets with no give, w/ mail secured more tightly than an actual shift, with perfect AoA. Not exactly battlefield conditions.
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That said, early 15th century knights don't have total, full-thickness plate coverage. In a shower of arrows, many might find horses, lifted visors, breaths, gaps. So it's important to think in probabilities. Never 100% lethal or 100% immune.
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Kelly DeVries made the argument about moving mail also during our VIVID debate made on the ferry ride across the Bosphorus in 2015. Untestable. Probably right. But as you say, it's all about the probability cloud.
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