The best description of the Roman alliance system I've seen in print is Tim Cornell calling it "a criminal operation which compensates its victims by enrolling them in the gang and inviting them to share in the proceeds of future robberies." 1/
I see close parallels with much of what we are doing now - banging the table about NATO contributions, demanding to know what NATO can do for us and demanding that our NATO partners sacrifice more - rather than less - of their national interest on the altar of the alliance 11/
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I think that gets the benefits of NATO to the US - *our* part of the interest calculation - wrong. We pay for our part in NATO because the risk of a near-peer conflict is so great that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Let me put that in a thought experiment...12/
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Let's say the base chance of a near-peer conflict is just 5% normally in the next 50 years, but without NATO (and our security commitments in East Asia) it rises to 15%. WWII cost something like $300bn at the time, or something like 4.1 trillion inflation adjusted. 13/
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