https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/strategy-and-exit-strategies-essential-or-misleading/ … A good discussion on exit strategies, though I think it is somewhat hindered by the fact that the analytical framework being used really extends no earlier than 1800. That's a problem because it keeps them from realizing how novel the problem is. 1/11
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Trying to apply the 'exit strategy' to wars outside of the ritualized European formula is thus a new endeavor, and as likely to succeed as getting the Gauls to wait until after your ritual sacrifices. Why should the Taliban volunteer to lose to save your rituals? 7/11
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In my view: good policy should *assume* that exit is difficult and there will always be complications. Supposedly 1941-5 was the good war, supposedly with an exit strategy, **but we haven't exited Germany or Japan yet!!** 8/11
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So the correct policy assumption: assume any boots-on-the-ground action will require a permanent military presence (perhaps a small one) for at least 75 years. Do your cost-benefit on action on that basis. If it isn't worth 75 years, it isn't worth the initial action. 9/11
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None of which is to say I don't think the conversation there isn't a good one - it is. We *should* have a clear idea of what our end goals are, and those end goals *should* - indeed *must* be clearly articulated to the public so that it knows what it is signing up for. fin/11
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