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Got the nicest handwritten note from a college senior, which turned into an email conversation. He asked for advice. Here's my response:pic.twitter.com/JKGebLYDWM
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Brent Beshore Retweeted
Steve Kerr on all the former greats who said they'd beat this
#Warriors team.#NBAFinals
pic.twitter.com/5uxheYHQoX
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Brent Beshore Retweeted
This post by
@NickSzabo4 on money, blockchain, and social scalability is phenomenal. Interesting and illuminating. http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2017/02/money-blockchains-and-social-scalability.html?m=1 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo -
But we need people who can encourage our efforts and hold up the mirror, while helping us work through our crap and forgive our enemies.https://twitter.com/Jesse_Livermore/status/872676027230818304 …
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“Talk to a man about himself and he will listen for hours.” -Benjamin Disraelihttps://twitter.com/patrick_oshag/status/872831969377308672 …
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Recently I've hired an electrician to change a lightbulb and a repair guy to unplug/plug in my TV. Not doing the obvious is expensive.
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Past results are the best indication of future performance. Good/bad businesses tend to maintain trajectory. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/mercurydoc?language=ENG&format=PDF&document_id=1019433381&serialid=dhodges@barrowhanley.com&auditid=1182867 …pic.twitter.com/G1arvNRSBz
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Knowledge can be learned vicariously. Wisdom is discovered through uncomfortable experience, from which no one escapes.pic.twitter.com/Jn5VMj7cpE
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Make the swing, constantly absorb the feedback loops, learn, adjust, rinse and repeat.
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Work to understand the categories of risk, knowing it’s impossible to predict what will go wrong in each. Plan against those categories.
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Structure deals that force the superior position of knowledge (seller) to shoulder assumptions and put skin in. Reluctance is telling.
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Buying at the right price is step one. High prices mean high expectations and often lead to disappointment IMHO. Never anticipate heroics.
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Ways to mitigate are endless. Can't get bogged down in low-probability, low-consequence risks, while not ignoring impactful long-tail events
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...use non-recourse debt, build networks of expertise/relationships, maintain sufficient cash buffers, etc.
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You can negotiate risk-sharing, cap counterparty risk, buy insurance, use flexible assets, budget for redundancy...
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Key to create large-scale mispriced optionality, like making a good acquisition, is to break it into smaller risks and apply time/$ against.
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Risk is generally easier to identify, isolate, and plan against than upside. Bad things are obvious categorically. Upside is unbounded.
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We pay far more attention to the downside than the upside. We want to cap our risk, knowing the future is murky and we’ll make errors.
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Goal is to allocate capital to meaningful projects w/ big upside, little risk, high certainty. Simple in theory. Brutal in practice.
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View investments probabilistically through the lens of upside/downside filtered against opportunity costs, framed against total capital base
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