These norms are fragile precisely because, per @emilythorson, they are not formal or legal. And they are hard to restore once breached.
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No one person or institution is at fault for Trump. Everyone has their favorite monocausal explanation. They're all incomplete.
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We can sort through root causes later. Here's where we are: Someone could capture a major party nom who endorses violence & few seem alarmed
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I honestly thought our institutions were more robust to a Trump-like figure & that others in public life were more committed to dem. norms
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Brendan Nyhan Retweeted Matt Glassman
We may narrowly avert disaster per below but even if we do, no one should congratulate themselves on a great victoryhttps://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/709176665646039040 …
Brendan Nyhan added,
Matt Glassman @MattGlassman312@BrendanNyhan so I'm not ready to blame the institutions. Yet. What we may see is resilient institutions handle this and avoid disaster.40 retweets 75 likes -
We're looking over the precipice and I mostly hear crickets. Trump could be on his way toward the GOP nomination after *Tuesday* night
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One reason: much of the "this will end soon..." rationalizing (which I once shared) has now shifted to general. No one should be comforted.
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A major party nomination is a powerful thing. Millions of people will instinctively support Trump. Many/most GOP pols will back him.
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General elections can be won and lost on chance swings in the economy or foreign policy crises. There are no guarantees at that point.
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And even if Trump loses, the exits he could prompt from the party could leave his sympathizers with control of a major party going forward
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Trumpism may yet be revealed as cult of personality with no staying power. He has no factional base or issue to realign party over long term
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But no one should be comforted about the point we're at with Trump or what it has revealed about the health of our political system.
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@BrendanNyhan Nightmare scenario for US: Trump & Clinton clinch nominations, then a new scandal or economic crash gives him a chance to win.3 retweets 18 likes - View other replies
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@BrendanNyhan But he's brought immigration full spotlight again even after 2012 post mortem called for rethinking immigration0 retweets 1 like - View other replies
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@sgadarian@BrendanNyhan a bunch of responses to the tweet storm: 1. The establishment/elite courted this. They’ve spent decades feeding2 retweets 13 likes -
@sgadarian@BrendanNyhan rhetorical red meat to the base, irregardless of how true it was. They didn’t smack down conspiracy theories, etc.2 retweets 18 likes - View other replies
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@sgadarian@BrendanNyhan second, they willfully created a structure in which primary elections matter more & empower the bae.1 retweet 9 likes - View other replies
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@sgadarian@BrendanNyhan yes, though to be clear, the systemic stuff to which I was referring was mostly gerrymandering. They’ve stuck0 retweets 6 likes -
@sgadarian@BrendanNyhan people in districts where their first concern is a primary from the right. Hence the vote no, hope yes caucus.0 retweets 7 likes - View other replies
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@brianros1@BrendanNyhan We always talk about fight or flight but what we've seen from elites this cycle is freezing. Can't or won't act.6 retweets 28 likes - View other replies
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@BrendanNyhan otoh it could be even scarier to contemplate how someone w/more of a real program could exploit these vulnerabilities1 retweet 12 likes -
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@BrendanNyhan unless he does well enough to maintain control of his people for another 4 years and do this again in 20200 retweets 2 likes -
@BrendanNyhan The left presented Obama as the anointed one, and it's he, Obama, who's been sabotaging the US economy http://bit.ly/1WjONG60 retweets 1 like -
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@BrendanNyhan Video succinct appeal of realdonaldtrump. Obama & Democrats are incompetent, put US in debt!#GOPhttp://bit.ly/1P7Djjb10:11 PM - 13 Mar 2016 · Details0 retweets 0 likes
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@BrendanNyhan (cc@cehoskinson) Obama's cult of personality has turned US into 'a nation of enablers'http://washex.am/1RgeBVx10:02 PM - 13 Mar 2016 · Details0 retweets 0 likes
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@BrendanNyhan Difficult to see how a President Trump would not be impeached in short order.0 retweets 0 likes -
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