Brendan Nyhan

We're looking over the precipice and I mostly hear crickets. Trump could be on his way toward the GOP nomination after *Tuesday* night

One reason: much of the "this will end soon..." rationalizing (which I once shared) has now shifted to general. No one should be comforted.

A major party nomination is a powerful thing. Millions of people will instinctively support Trump. Many/most GOP pols will back him.

General elections can be won and lost on chance swings in the economy or foreign policy crises. There are no guarantees at that point.

And even if Trump loses, the exits he could prompt from the party could leave his sympathizers with control of a major party going forward

Trumpism may yet be revealed as cult of personality with no staying power. He has no factional base or issue to realign party over long term

But no one should be comforted about the point we're at with Trump or what it has revealed about the health of our political system.

@BrendanNyhan agreed. But I believe fully revealed Trumpism will poll so unfavorable nationally that self-interests GOP dumps him at conv.

@MattGlassman312 @BrendanNyhan Mostly depends on whether GOP elites accept him if/when he "wins" the nomination.

@jbview @MattGlassman312 they may be forced to accept him earlier and/or take comfort in rise in numbers if people start rallying around him

@BrendanNyhan @jbview @MattGlassman312 Seemed most party actors wld line up bc of party incentives, but calculus may have changed this wknd

@ProfMeinke @jbview @MattGlassman312 we've said that so many times, though - not confident any more, esp. given coordination problem

@BrendanNyhan @profMeinke @MattGlassman312 I'm more optimistic than you, but you could be right. Still only 45 state legislators with him.