Alexander Brehm

@BrehmAlexander

Investor / Developer

Frankfurt / Germany
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2016.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 10 sati
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    prije 18 sati

    US employment situation, ADP came very robust and much stronger than expected, ahead of Friday's ... keep in mind, Jobs opening JOLTS is a) couple of months lagging b) had a huge basis effect coming from a very strong Nov2018. Hopefully turns up too

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    4. velj

    On the software 'money losing/overvalued/bubble' stocks - Yes, SaaS companies are richly valued but they are expensive because (i) we are very early innings in cloud migration (ii) they are growing revenues by 30/40/50 even 90% YOY (III) their gross margins are almost 80%...

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    3. velj

    Bloomberg's data set continues to show a declining rate of change of confirmed cases (of coronavirus). Good news if this is accurate.

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  5. 3. velj
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    Habe ich euch schon mal vom Asch-Experiment erzählt? Das muss jeder verstehen, der auf Twitter unterwegs ist. Also: Guckt mal diese Linien an. Welche Linie auf dem rechten Bild ist so lang wie die auf dem linken Bild? (1/6)

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    7. Very interesting: quite the mismatch between leading indicator surprises (turning up) and S&P500 industrials sector performance (panic mode)... h/t

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    🤔☕️Tired of the virus? I took a look at what usually happens when ISM regains the 50 level. This may happen as early as next week! Surprisingly, this is not necessarily near-term good news for equities (good news for the next 2 mths though). Also bad news for USTs & .

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima

    It’s a pure macro factor IMO ... it’s relative performance behaves like credit spreads.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    In my second data update for 2020, I look at a disruptive decade where stocks did well and interest rates stayed low, but value lagged growth, the small cap premium disappeared and big tech dominated.

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    Higher prices ==> Increased risk appetite ==> Market liquidity This is how it works. It’s only about the Fed to the extent the misunderstanding of the transmission mechanism creates a placebo effect. Explainer here:

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    Chinese gov is going to stimulate this year They have to appease the population, (in wake of coronavirus) and also present a strong economy into 2021 which is the 100th anniversary of CCP Yet everyone is selling commodities that are now trading at record low standard deviation

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    : Vorläufige Zahlen zum Einkaufsmanagerindex für das verarbeitende Gewerbe überraschen positiv. Insbesondere der Auftragseingang erholt sich deutlich. Allerdings: Werte unter 50 bedeuten immer noch Kontraktion im Vergleich zum Vormonat

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    from - pretty interesting that the top and bottom 20 percentiles tend to market tops and bottoms, more or less

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    21. sij

    🇺🇸 I still think there is a substantial chance that markets and economists will be surprised by higher unemployment (globally) in 2020 and thus gradually weaker domestic demand. JOLTS data last week complemented the signal from my survey-based model quite nicely in that respect.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    Die neuen Rendite-Dreiecke sind da 😀🎉. Aktien sind, wie unsere zeigen, langfristig immer eine attraktive Anlageform zum Vermögensaufbau. Aktien müssen daher zu einem festen Bestandteil der Altersvorsorge werden.

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    Die Demokratie wird nicht per se gestärkt, wenn jeweils 50 Prozent der Abgeordneten eine Mumu oder einen Pimpermann haben. Es kommt auf die Qualifikation und die Redlichkeit der Mandatsträger an und auf nichts, gar nichts unterhalb der Gürtellinie.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    17. sij

    Breadth is still incredibly strong. The blow-off top in Jan 18' had great participation up until the very end but the notable difference then was that yields were rising just as fast. Yields staying pinned down has made for a large tailwind. Will need to see if they can hold

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