Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

Senior Fellow . Senior Adviser, . Writes about sovereign debt, imbalances, and capital flows. Blogs at . Views are my own.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2016.
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  1. prije 2 sata

    Exports to China are still weak, just not quite as bad as this time last year. And with the usual Chinese new year seasonality and the impact of the coronavirus, it will take some time before the impact (if any) of the phase 1 deal becomes clear in the actual trade data 5/5

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  2. prije 2 sata

    But for the coronavirus, the pace of the fall in US imports from China should slow thanks to the phase 1 deal. But with lots of tariffs still in place and the impact of the extended Chinese shutdown, the y/y fall should continue for a while longer ... 4/x

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  3. prije 2 sata

    Combine the tariffs with generalized weakness in imports and the deficit with China is coming down fast ... 3/x

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  4. prije 2 sata

    The annualized monthly data for December suggests a tiny rebound -- and I would be looking for some normalization in q1 but for the coronavirus. 2/x

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  5. prije 2 sata

    Charting today's trade data -- The big story is still the fall in non-petrol imports in the fourth quarter. Exports are pretty much on (a bad) trend. The fall in imports is bigger than easily can be explained, even with weak U.S. goods demand 1/x

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  6. prije 3 sata

    Derek's quote highlights the problem with President Trump's definition of "victory" in the Phase 1 trade war -- namely, success hinges on a politically driven increase in trade with China. (Much of the ag/ energy China promised to buy would otherwise have gone to U.S. allies)

    “Economists will say, ‘Oh great, the president has had success on a meaningless indicator he made up for political reasons,’” . “I agree with that. But I want to trade more with my friends" and less with dictators, he said.
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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati

    Here is perhaps a simpler way of representing the divergence in the spread between Hubei province and all the other provinces in China: Conclusion: Hubei: Not under control Rest of China: Explosive growth avoided so far

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  8. prije 5 sati

    The $87b fall in US imports from China (down 16% for the year) overwhelmed the $13b fall in US exports (down 11% for the year)

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  9. prije 5 sati

    Trump, incidentally, has shown that if you make the bilateral balance a policy priority and are willing to suffer the economic drag that comes with tariffs, you can bring a bilateral deficit down. The deficit with China (goods) fell by $74b in 19

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  10. prije 5 sati

    And given that the US imports way more from China than it exports (still), the shock -- directionally -- will reduce the the trade deficit. Depending on how long parts of the Chinese supply chain are shut down, that effect should persist through q2.

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  11. prije 5 sati

    The U.S. eased up on the trade war, which should help consumer goods (imports from China have been especially weak). But, well, the corona virus is looming as a potentially very large (though hopefully temporary) shock.

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  12. prije 5 sati

    A lot of the q4 weakness was in autos and consumer goods -- and the auto weakness presumably will pass (GM strike, inventory adjustment). Consumer goods is harder ...

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  13. prije 5 sati

    The non-petrol (goods) deficit was basically flat if you compare 2019 to 2018. But that's the result of two different halves of data. A rising deficit in h1, and then a big fall in q4. Poses a forecasting challenge for 2020 1/x

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  14. prije 6 sati

    That said, I would -- if intervention data justifies it -- still name Thailand. The penalty is a year of negotiation (and even that can be waived), and negotiations to make sure that the Bank of Thailand doesn't treat 30 as a de facto ceiling on the baht seem totally appropriate

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  15. prije 6 sati

    However, the corona virus has complicated things -- Thailand is very exposed to a China tourism shock, and the baht has been falling (w-o any help from the Bank of Thailand). Conditions have changed. 4/x

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  16. prije 6 sati

    Taiwan potentially does too. It meets the bilateral surplus criteria, and it meets the current account surplus criteria. And it is hard to prove it doesn't meet the intervention criteria when Taiwan doesn't disclose its forward book, and thus can mask spot purchases. 3/x

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  17. prije 6 sati

    With intervention it is going to be close -- some of Thailand's heavy end year intervention seems to have registered in January. And it will depend a bit on Treasury's estimate of interest income. But my guess is Thailand meets all 3 criteria. 2/x

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  18. prije 6 sati

    Thailand's bilateral surplus with the U.S. in 2019 topped $20b ($20.153b). Which means Thailand is line for an automatic designation for currency manipulation if the Treasury concludes its intervention topped 2% of GDP. Thailand meets the current account surplus criteria. 1/x

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 16 sati

    Some thoughts on China’s economic policy amid coronavirus: it may be undergoing its steepest slowdown in decades, but is highly constrained in how to respond. Not because of its debts but because of extreme near-term uncertainty about timing of a recovery.

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  20. prije 16 sati

    It is relatively easy to illustrate the enormous magnitude of China's trade. It is much harder to tell an equally important story (imo) -- namely that China's trade growth has actually lagged its GDP growth significantly (ratios are best done by graphs not photos ... )

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