"The iceberg is you’ve got critical cases, you’ve got severe cases, you’ve got mild cases and a bit of asymptomatic transmission probably at the bottom. That seems to be what it looks like." -Aylward 2/25
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"...everyone's saying this thing's spreading everywhere & we can’t see it... But the data doesn't support that. What it supports is there may be a few asymptomatic cases & that probably is a real issue but there’s not huge transmission beyond what you can see clinically."
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Just posing an open ended question here- How did they get it so wrong?
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April 2nd Situation report: "There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur." https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf …
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My approach with events that have a long right tail is to be conservative. "Don't need to wear a mask" => I wear a mask. "Asymptomatic cases not spreading" => assume they are. "US has few cases" => I know US has a lot of cases, etc. Can't go wrong by being conservative.
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It's a heuristic with advantages.
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