expected return of 25%? if you can prove it’s a fair die I would like to know the maximum haha.
You're offered the chance to wager on the roll of a 6-sided die. If a 1 is rolled, you lose, but if anything else is rolled, you're paid 1.5 times whatever you bet. You only get one chance at this. How much do you wager? This is deciding how much to bet on Biden on @PredictIt.
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your ROI is 108%
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The answer to this question is the limit on Predicit.
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The answer to this question is whatever you can afford to lose, unless you have better options. (Unless yours was a literal answer in which case use
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If you believed the polls
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71.6% of your bankroll. (at least according to the Kelly criterion)
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Pretty high, but you never go full Kelly. Half Kelly would be 35% of your bankroll
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From a pure eNPV frame: If you bet $100 your "expected" payout is $125, so you would want to bet as much as possible, taking into account the risk profile and "expected utility" of the person making the bet.
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Nothing I can't afford to lose.
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