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Since so many seem eager to believe Dessler's graph let's just dissect it: Dessler says he's graphing hot days But HadEX3 (temp data used for IPCC) actually shows *the opposite* result (with 1930s max) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD032263 … https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770 …pic.twitter.com/txFz4lO9ZE
So Dessler feels that the data from US National Climate Assessment and EPA "just doesn't look right" makes up a graph that doesn't show heatwaves but hot days and his graph doesn't match other data https://www.climdex.org/access/ , https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770 …pic.twitter.com/899uy2XKKX
Dessler claims his new graph shows "heatwaves are certainly worse today than in the 20th century" Yet, his data doesn't show heatwaves, doesn't match verified data, and conflicts with official findings of US Climate Assessment and EPA tl;dr: Implausible https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501 …pic.twitter.com/aUGt1yCIoj
To me, the most astounding part: why would so many cheer Dessler's poor performance against the best science? Could it be that scary stories are more important to many than following the best science?
Dessler claims that I cherry-pick in two ways: 1. I pick an "unusual metric" Really? I use the metric chosen by EPA and the two metrics chosen by US Climate Assessment No, Dessler, cherry-picking is making up your own graph, badly https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501 …pic.twitter.com/SSyBbtpGr6
Dessler claims that I cherry-pick in two ways: 2. I only look at the US That is just silly. So the entire US Climate Assessment, which only looks at the US is cherry-picked? Of course, the US is a relevant topic. https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501 …pic.twitter.com/WaHWIoqQIq
After I engaged with Dessler, he produced multi-day graphs (thx) But still vague (he says min, but insist max), don't replicate EPA and US Climate Assessment and not replicated by HadEX3 (IPCC) https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770 … https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429133743483146245 …pic.twitter.com/G3mXDyqnKH
Just to clarify: Climate change is real, man-made+problem Carbon taxes+green innovation smart Globally and future, heatwaves will increase, coldwaves decrease But scaring us witless with bad information is unlikely to lead to smart policies
Addendum on data concerns: Smart researchers at NCA+EPA *know* about limitations and take them into account
Exactly the reason for assessments — so we know what's correct w/all caveats considered
EPA: "not sufficient to change trends"
h/t @SlagOffTwits
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves …pic.twitter.com/H3Lau9Y6oq
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