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The new research paper that got headlines across the world, finds that higher temperatures mean more heat deaths https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/climate/heat-deaths-climate-change.html … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x …pic.twitter.com/oDyrShgsHK
But the new study specifically only looks at increases in heat deaths, not decreases in cold deaths by only looking at the impact from the 4 hottest months https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x …pic.twitter.com/jcnXvW39aj
Yet, in a scientific article in the Lancet, some of the same co-authors looked at the full impact of climate on both heat and cold from 1990s to 2010s Yes, higher temps mean more heat deaths But higher temps mean 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 avoided cold deaths https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30156-0/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/80jVv8a8I8
Using population average, twice as many people don't die from cold as die extra from heat As the researchers roughly estimate the extra deaths at 100,000, that means ~200,000 fewer die from cold Not telling the full story is not informing us well https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/06/25/climate-change-science-media-spread-fears-ignore-possible-positives/7738009002/ …pic.twitter.com/I1Et0RwlMC
Bc data limitations, better impact studies for richer, less hot countries If we assume that missing world is more like Southeast Asia, avoided cold deaths are 'only' 50% higher than extra heat deaths (so 100K more heat deaths, 150K fewer cold deaths) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30156-0/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/etHIadTWsR
Notice, despite global warming, cold deaths are going up many places Why? Cold deaths are much harder to stop Heat deaths can be avoided w/air conditioning for a few days Cold deaths need better heating for many monthspic.twitter.com/Uh9BQxSfPP
As stronger global warming policies drive up heating costs being properly heated for months becomes harder for marginalized groups In the US, lower gas prices meant better heating, and 11,000 avoided cold deaths Higher energy costs reverse that https://www.nber.org/papers/w25681 pic.twitter.com/FXLo8R37Dl
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