Bjorn LomborgVarmennettu tili

Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554) https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/histstatus/hstat1970_cen_1975_v1.pdf …pic.twitter.com/MQBkFNfvUN

Here is the critique and why it is just handwaving https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 …pic.twitter.com/Imc4EgfwKA

At time, fires were well-known Here US deputy of Forest Service: "in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined." https://books.google.se/books/about/Forestry_and_Permanent_Prosperity.html?id=kimmwgEACAAJ&redir_esc=y …pic.twitter.com/X4UiDlia7k

Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113 https://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/docs/national-reports/2010/2010-sustainability-report.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ZMdtIdPxg8

Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn't report back) insert, p491 https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/22935 …pic.twitter.com/s0jhul053H

4.5-12% of California area likely used to burn *every* year before 1800 2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112707004379 … https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/ pic.twitter.com/T5LRM0sn7g

New York Times 1781, "the smoke was so dense that many persons thought the day of judgment had come" https://www.nytimes.com/1894/09/03/archives/the-cause-of-the-hazy-air-all-due-to-the-unusual-prevalence-of.html …pic.twitter.com/PXCLDsWZUU

EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100) I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?Lab=OAP&dirEntryId=335095 …pic.twitter.com/DRe6qjHQgT