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Fire data 1960-2020 from https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html …, plus NIFC 2020 estimate from Jan 2 2021 1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52 1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00920.x …pic.twitter.com/hBZD6SwDUO
Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development. ... 25% ...from climate change, and "75% is the way we manage lands https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062029829 …pic.twitter.com/2mKKneYNcT
Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554) https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/histstatus/hstat1970_cen_1975_v1.pdf …pic.twitter.com/MQBkFNfvUN
Here is the critique and why it is just handwaving https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 …pic.twitter.com/Imc4EgfwKA
At time, fires were well-known Here US deputy of Forest Service: "in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined." https://books.google.se/books/about/Forestry_and_Permanent_Prosperity.html?id=kimmwgEACAAJ&redir_esc=y …pic.twitter.com/X4UiDlia7k
Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113 https://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/docs/national-reports/2010/2010-sustainability-report.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ZMdtIdPxg8
Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn't report back) insert, p491 https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/22935 …pic.twitter.com/s0jhul053H
4.5-12% of California area likely used to burn *every* year before 1800 2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112707004379 … https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/ pic.twitter.com/T5LRM0sn7g
New York Times 1781, "the smoke was so dense that many persons thought the day of judgment had come" https://www.nytimes.com/1894/09/03/archives/the-cause-of-the-hazy-air-all-due-to-the-unusual-prevalence-of.html …pic.twitter.com/PXCLDsWZUU
EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100) I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?Lab=OAP&dirEntryId=335095 …pic.twitter.com/DRe6qjHQgT
Notice, that over next 80 years, fire burden will shift with some areas seeing more fire and others less https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?Lab=OAP&dirEntryId=335095 …pic.twitter.com/H3PCAmFTzF
17x more homes in high-risk areas from 1940-2050 from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 …pic.twitter.com/J93XTzFjRO
US forest area has not decreased since 1900, actually slightly increased https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/legacy_files/media/types/publication/field_pdf/forestfacts-2014aug-fs1035-508complete.pdf … (p7)pic.twitter.com/5T3yT5x0et
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