Bjorn LomborgVarmennettu tili

Despite breathless climate reporting of ever-more fire Data: Burned area strongly declined Realistic climate models: area continue to decline, worst-case in 2100 similar to today Even strong climate policy (70% reduction) makes modest difference Shouldn't this be reported?pic.twitter.com/3jGc7ujxoN

Normally, we hear that climate will make fire area go through the roof But that is based on climate-only models, ignoring CO₂ fertilization and population Such simple climate-only models don't fit data at all https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2999 …pic.twitter.com/MzYxCBeNC6

To get to the lower blue line, we have to enact implausibly strong climate policies, cutting 70% of emissions in all countries over rest of century Yet, the reduction impact in burned area is only equivalent to reduction seen last ten yearspic.twitter.com/7OYkgXrrIS

Even the models incorporating climate, CO₂ and population are still off — look at how they fit poorly with the dramatic decline in the last two decades If anything, CO₂-fertilization and population/adaptation does *more* to cut burned areapic.twitter.com/FnTqwIeI3X