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Just using storm frequency across entire Atlantic has two problems: 2) Satellite data starts around 1970, when Atlantic hurricanes are in a lull. Only looking from 1970s will incorrectly give an impression of an increase https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/99/7/1359/70330/Continental-U-S-Hurricane-Landfall-Frequency-and …pic.twitter.com/hwzMgbqu4o
Yes, 2020 Atlantic hurricane season very powerful But Accumulated Cyclone Energy (the integrated metric of frequency, intensity+duration) 2020 only 14th-strongest 1933 — almost a century ago — still strongest, followed by 2005, 2017, 1893 and 1926 https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0330.1/354934/The-Record-Breaking-1933-Atlantic-Hurricane-Season …
Don't just look for strong hurricanes and say 'see, climate makes them worse!' We have to look across the world: Yes, 2020 worse in Atlantic+NIndian But 2020 much better in W, E and Central Pacific In total, 2020 is *less* strong at 76% of normal year http://climatlas.com/tropical/ pic.twitter.com/ETxxhmsoGf
In future, climate will likely make hurricanes *fewer* but *stronger* Fewer is better, but stronger is worse, meaning overall damages will increase (this is why climate is a problem) Here from UN Climate Panel latest 2018 report, p178 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ pic.twitter.com/5QnJOVqxOr
But richer also means more resilience against catastrophes when hurricane Mitch hit poorer Honduras in 1998, it killed 7,000 and cost 70% of their GDP when hurricanes hit Flordia, it kills few people and cost a fraction of a percent of Flordia GDP https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/25506 …
That is why climate-related damages are declining, not increasing, as the world is getting richer Update of https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 … from https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2018.1540343 …pic.twitter.com/263YnZ3F43
The UN estimate especially the developing world will get richer during the 21st century, with inequality declining dramatically in the UN's middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 …pic.twitter.com/gyoZZRMaRB
Hurricane damages are about 0.04% of GDP now With no climate change, increasing prosperity reduces hurricane damage to 0.01% of GDP in 2100 With climate change, prosperity reduces damages to 0.02% of GDP Damages will at least *halve* from .04% to .02%https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1357 …
Biden's most extreme climate policy will cost trillions yet reduce temperatures by just about 0.1°C (0.2°F) by 2100 (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-economist_president-elect-joe-biden-has-promised-to-activity-6734495329200209920-MLZt/ …) It will help Central America almost nothing But bringing prosperity can increase resilience, lower vulnerability and drive development
Social and economic policies are typically much more effective than climate policies — for some interventions, a dollar spent on reducing vulnerability can help 52 times more than one spent on climate policyhttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2007.2086 …
Great to want to help But help effectively: Poor Nicaraguans are struggling with mudslides and flooding Suggesting helping them by putting up solar panels in the US is spectacularly ineffective Help them with prosperity and resilience, eg free tradehttps://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/01/25/the-tragedy-killing-tpp/0rGIOAKRH5PZ0mSYWVl46J/story.html …
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