Net zero by 2050 will continue to be a massive policy implementation challenge, but the global political consensus on climate has never been stronger ... a Biden election moves climate politics fully into a new era ...https://twitter.com/MLiebreich/status/1319035999385767939 …
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Well, 1. SSPs can't be used for meaningful cost benefit analyses (setting aside everything else wrong w/ 30-yr CBA, but I digress): See--> https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ahsxw/ … 2. Cost effectiveness is a political boundary condition for policy design (see--> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514000901?casa_token=bloBOGjZ99QAAAAA:XTcghcwgxVigwuL0Fjle-K-YEcMN6OE1yEpDU-kSOJGu_R2rEgjvBRACmogdAo9YaqzmPlFMoKo …)
Not a cost-benefit analysis, just cost estimate. I used SSP2 for US GDP in 2050. $34 trillion doesn't sound too off. I didn't argue cost-effectiveness. But policies with costs orders of magnitude higher cost than willingness to pay spell trouble over decades
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OECD long-term projection has US GDP at $38 trillion in 2020$PPP, https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm …
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Sure pick your favorite We're not so optimistic about the accuracy of such projections: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/vndqr/ … That said, accurate projection is unnecessary: No policy can sustain over decades unless it provides perceived benefits on electoral time scales (in US, 2, 4, 6 years)
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Sure Appears we are in agreement Climate policies should be effective (they should achieve their aims) and to do so requires being pragmatic (they should respect real-world political, social, economic, technological, etc constraints)
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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