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Electric cars aren't taking over the world: In 2030, just 13% of new cars sold will be electric Majority still petrol, with diesel and hybrid at 18% each Fossil fuel car ban tough: Will make 69% of new buyers worse off New study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920305845 …pic.twitter.com/zgZjgijW0e
Electric cars not taking over In 2030, 9% of all new cars sold will be electric in Western Europe (HDV, essentially trucks, will still be about 0%) North America 17% China 21% (75% electric busses, bc high subsidies) World total is 13% https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920305845 …pic.twitter.com/kAfkFQtRwK
Because world is richer with more people, the world will be selling 27% more cars in 2030 (121m/yr) Selling 16m electric cars in 2030 needs 3.4x the amount of lithium and 1.7x the amount of cobalt compared to *total* global production in 2017 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920305845 …pic.twitter.com/u4PMHe0j0G
There could be non-linearities in this market, just a as in many others. So much depends on financial schemes, infrastructure, and the coolness of electric. A point prediction doesn't make much sense in my opinion.
I cannot help but feel by 2030 a lot less people are able to afford a car, if internal combustion is outlawed. Maybe by design.
A lot of our efforts to reduce CO2 make people on lower incomes worse off. That's not to say we shouldn't do anything, but we should always aim for biggest bang for our buck, which unfortunately we don't do right now.
It will be very interesting to see what happens in Norway in the near future, with the first generation/wave of EVs getting older and the 2nd hand value being highly questionable/unknown and the government slowly removing tax rebates. There will be next to no incentives to buy ev
The establishment have always regretted giving the plebs personal mobility. Cars were OK when only the rich could afford them. So lets make them more expensive and less reliable and convenient, so that the plebs move to public transport that we control.
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