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Temperature anomalies in May 2020, expressed as standard deviations from the average 1981-2010 in the @CopernicusECMWF #ERA5 reanalysis. Note the 5σ deviation in northwestern Siberia, would be a 1 in 100000 year event for a normal distribution of anomalies without climate change.pic.twitter.com/29u87uJ88o
Dear Martin Question: I’m assuming your calculation is that p(|σ|>5)=5.733e-7, so the probability of finding this is 1/5.733e-7 for a single month, meaning a recurrence interval of 1.7m months, or 145,000 years
But this only estimates the return time for |σ|>5 of the specific place of Norilsk in Siberia. The magenta σ>5 is only a small part of the full area of your map (about 100 pixels of about 400,000 pixels)
The probability of *none* of the 4000 100-pixel areas have |σ|>5 is (1-5.733e-7)^4000=0.9988, meaning a recurrence interval of 900 months or 72 years. So I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be more correct to say a 5σ event of this extent is a 1 in 72 year event?
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