What's so pernicious about @BjornLomborg's approach, is that any criticism against crude cost-benefit analysis is waived away as indiferrence to poor people. He calls @past_is_future just "an activist". It stamps out any opportunity to ask why they are poor in the first place,https://twitter.com/past_is_future/status/1263514329430798337 …
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @JamesGDyke ja @past_is_future
Dear James, I'll bite Take a look at our paper with Malawi https://www.npc.mw/docs/NPC%20COVID%20cost%20benefit%20analysis%20Malawi.pdf … — or short thread here https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1263495512856068098 … Shows moderate shutdown leaves Malawi and future 25x worse off Could avoid more deaths, 4,000x cheaper Isn't this important+relevant to know?pic.twitter.com/kE21rUVYWR
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @past_is_future
"a moderate lockdown (social restrictions) will likely reduce the death toll by 16,350". You go on to find economic & social impacts over 5 years would lead to an even greater loss of life. Do you then conclude that these need to be urgently mitigated?
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @JamesGDyke ja @BjornLomborg
right. the shtick is to estimate benefits from only intermediate or partial measures and contrast them with hugely inflated costs. same thing he does for climate, e.g. 'this intermediate step would cost a kajillion dollars but only reduce temperature by a millionth of a kelvin'
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @past_is_future ja @JamesGDyke
This is not what we do. Corona deaths are avoided within 1-2 years but knock-on effects are still negative after 5 years. So we include both the benefits (1-2 yr for corona, 5yrs for HIV, 9months for traffic), and the disbenefits (malnutrition+TB+malaria for 5 yrs)
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In that way corona is reverse of climate: most benefits are realized in a few years, but costs accumulate over decades (as when children get less education and become less productive over next 50 yrs) see also first peer-reviewed cost-benefit analysis https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561934 …pic.twitter.com/uEjS50jKth
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