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There’s a fringe view out there that if you do the numbers the shutdown somehow isn’t worth the cost to the economy.
That view is wrong, by orders of magnitude. @profholden and @BruceJPreston show why.https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303 …
Your low cost seems to come from only estimating half cost for two years. Does this downplay long-term cost due to growth from lower trough, as in only peer-reviewed cost-benefit study from US (shows much higher+lasting costs over next 30 years)? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561934 …pic.twitter.com/RFszh4XOMq
Notice, moderate social distancing still has a benefit-cost ratio of 1.7, so it is still a good idea, but this paper certainly shows it a much tighter comparison
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