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The only way Sweden is a 'failure' is if a de facto cure or vaccine is found before fall. But 1 in 75 is based in nothing but hope. It would be a completely different disease.
Actually, Denmark found up to 70x the number of infected to the number of cases, and estimate the real number to be 30-80x https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 …pic.twitter.com/5ILawCBmOR
Do you know the specificity and sensitivity of their testing? The point (beyond the tech of the study) is do you think there's differences in the disease in Nordic countries? Have they been THAT much more successful at quar. at-risk? General pop having THAT much less incidence?
Would love for it to be true - but that would mean something really different for those areas than the rest of the world. The Santa Clara antibody study had a terribly low specificity and selection bias and came up with about the same numbers as your Denmark study.
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