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Peak infections in Stockholm was April 8 (70,500 infected of 2m) By May 1, likely 26% will be or will have been infected Only 1 in 75 infections are detected New modeling estimate from Swedish Health Authoritieshttps://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/uppdaterad-modellering-av-spridningen-av-covid-19-i-stockholms-lan/ …
This is somewhat lower than the other, independent report predicting 33% now Stockholm and Sweden is doing a country-wide survey of prevalence this week, hopefully to be reported soonhttps://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1251811615705632775 …
Can you remind me is 30-40% enough for them to get herd immunity? Or no?
But isn’t it true that people 70+ are not being treated in ICU? That effectively the health system isn’t being overwhelmed because they are turning people away... this is barbaric if true and must be included in these discussions.
Is there a source for that?
It is not somewhat lower. It is a hell lot lower and much more realistic. But you would need to understand some basic math to understand that.pic.twitter.com/HCdDhjyfz3
The only way Sweden is a 'failure' is if a de facto cure or vaccine is found before fall. But 1 in 75 is based in nothing but hope. It would be a completely different disease.
Actually, Denmark found up to 70x the number of infected to the number of cases, and estimate the real number to be 30-80x https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 …pic.twitter.com/5ILawCBmOR
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