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Hard to keep people locked down: In Norway: 1st week after lockdown 65% movement reduction One month later, only 34% reduction (based on mobile data, https://www.nrk.no/norge/mer-bevegelse-tross-strenge-korona-tiltak-1.14987146 …)
This is why moderate distancing is a more plausible and sustainable long-term strategyhttps://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1250837429910724613 …
Moderate social distancing - has more deaths in short run, but much fewer in long run - is sustainable, because 1) people can live locked down like Sweden but not like Italy in long run; 2) long-run lockdown costs lower https://twitter.com/i/status/1250837429910724613 … https://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2020/04/09/save-lives-and-avoid-a-catastrophic-recession/#14cab5966f92 …
Here is my Forbes article making that pointhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2020/04/09/save-lives-and-avoid-a-catastrophic-recession/#14cab5966f92 …
We're doing social distancing since a few weeks (NL) and it seems to have a positive effect. It's a short term impact control measure in comparison to a lockdown. On the long run, the financial effects for many companies are likely not much different than a full lockdown though.
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