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New modeling report on corona in Stockholm shows - infections peaked a couple of days ago - about ⅓ have been infected by now - in a month, corona infections will be almost over and Stockholm close to herd immunity https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066050v1.full.pdf … https://www.facebook.com/tom.britton.9237/posts/1633988356757011 …pic.twitter.com/9afOgm4a4C
The report is a mathematical model, not an empirical study The Swedish chief epidemiologist says it is in line with their information and other studies and could well be true, but he emphasizes that there is still much uncertaintyhttps://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/just-nu-111-nya-dodsfall-i-sverige-totalt-1511-doda/ …
Worth following closely
Achieving herd immunity is trivial, simply do not impose strict prevention measures. The non-trivial question is the lives that it costs, and this paper models neither hospitalizations nor deaths.
You miss another non-trivial element of the equation - the hit on the economy, short- and long-term AND the longer term loss of life and reduction in welfare resulting from increased poverty levels and the hit on he NHS. This is bigger than COVID deaths.
How is this dividend over Sweden?
And the UK could have been there too if it wasn't for outspoken Neil Ferguson and the media storm he whipped up.
Perhaps if a few had remembered some of Prof F's previous extreme claims for modelled outcomes he's put forward over the last couple of decades...
This is borderline mixture of alchemy and auspice. We don‘t know basic facts (immunity, true R0-initial transmission was in subset of population VERY different from total population, etc) and then based on this non-knowledge a mathematical model is calculated...
This whole thing relies on the assumption that immunity is actually achievable. So far there is no evidence of this according to WHO. Furthermore there have been cases of re-infection in several different asian countries. I'd re-evaluate this herd-immunity strategy for sure..
Avian coronaviruses - also blood born - have effextive immunity generated from both vaccines and natural exposure. Convalescent serum also appears to be an effective treatment. Lack of immunity would be a unique exception... does WHO know something no one else does?
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