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The only other alternative is to keep society locked down permanently or intermittently until 2022, which seems entirely unsustainable -both in that people will not accept such long lockdowns, and -that economic costs will escalate way beyond the acceptablepic.twitter.com/oyTkGEnCk5
Sweden likely good example of moderate social distancing (70+ and sick self-isolate, little unnecessary travel, work from home if possible, some schools shut etc.) It keeps critical infections below capacity. But most people still live their lives, go to school, work, shop, eat
Conclusion, moderate social distancing - has more deaths in short run, but much fewer in long run (Science article) - is sustainable, because 1) people can live locked down like Sweden but not like Italy in long run; 2) long-run lockdown costs lowerhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2020/04/09/save-lives-and-avoid-a-catastrophic-recession/#14cab5966f92 …
There is a problem with "capacity". If a country has a huge ICU capacity - like Germany - does that mean it should let more people get infected? Imagine we had 5 times the ICU capacity. Could we accept 5 times as many critically sick people then? 60% will still die in the ICU.
This is the count in New Zealand, where I am, yesterday. The youngest death was a 78 year old and 2 in their 90s. Can you tell me why this is suppose to be such a dangerous disease?pic.twitter.com/ih53yjSVIZ
And the much higher death rate in Sweden than the other Nordic countrys?
"[Sweden] keeps critical infections below capacity" How do we know this is true? Current hospitalizations reflect infections from two weeks ago. If current policy is inadequate, we won't know until May.
If lockdowns are relaxed down to Sweden-level distancing, why would we expect a huge second wave? That is, if Sweden is not facing a huge wave now, countries that move from lockdown to moderate distancing won't either.
You dont know how the numbers from Sweden look like, do you
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