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We know from Spanish Flu a century ago that social distancing is effective, but "overeffective" policies (too strict lockdowns) are less effective because they drive a second wave This cost-benefit analysis misses the costs of "too effective" lockdowns https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7588 …pic.twitter.com/RRpY6Oynzb
Beyond that, the paper does great sensitivity It estimates a GDP cost from social distancing of 6.2% in first year. If the actual GDP cost is higher than 8.5% of GDP in first year, it turns out that social distancing policies led to an overall *worse* outcome for the USpic.twitter.com/KaJellUWNB
Corona and climate are exactly opposite in cost and benefit streams: With corona, the benefits are upfront, and costs are longterm in lower GDP over next decades Indeed, if the planning horizon is longer than 63 years, current social distancing leads to worse outcomespic.twitter.com/IX6CHQ7hZv
Finally, given that most corona victims are old, it is worth considering whether $10 million per VSL is correct. Indeed, if value of saved life is less than $5.85m, social distancing leads to worse outcomepic.twitter.com/4CLU0Ncuri
US HHS estimate a life-year saved worth about $500K (https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/242926/HHS_RIAGuidance.pdf#page=26 …), and with 7.8 life years saved per corona case (https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/economic-cost-of-flattening-the-curve/ …), that suggests a benefit of about $3.8m per life, meaning that social distancing delivers worse outcomes
The paper is very interesting and well done. It shows us that while there is definitely many benefits to be had to "flattening the curve", lock-down policies are easy We need to make sure the lock-down policies keep infections below capacity and also are as low-cost as possible
The flaw with lockdown v economy debate: The economy is going south without any official govt lockdown or enforced social distancing. The risk to the economy is probably greater when lifting occurs. Standstill for 3/6 months easier to navigate . Printing money also ignored.
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