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The analysis ignores 2nd wave — what happens after we have successfully reduced infections in the first wave It just assumes that there will be treatment or vaccine for the 2nd wave arriving in the fall This could dramatically underestimate the cost of strong social distancingpic.twitter.com/lGv9v8qiZG
We know from Spanish Flu a century ago that social distancing is effective, but "overeffective" policies (too strict lockdowns) are less effective because they drive a second wave This cost-benefit analysis misses the costs of "too effective" lockdowns https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7588 …pic.twitter.com/RRpY6Oynzb
Beyond that, the paper does great sensitivity It estimates a GDP cost from social distancing of 6.2% in first year. If the actual GDP cost is higher than 8.5% of GDP in first year, it turns out that social distancing policies led to an overall *worse* outcome for the USpic.twitter.com/KaJellUWNB
Corona and climate are exactly opposite in cost and benefit streams: With corona, the benefits are upfront, and costs are longterm in lower GDP over next decades Indeed, if the planning horizon is longer than 63 years, current social distancing leads to worse outcomespic.twitter.com/IX6CHQ7hZv
Finally, given that most corona victims are old, it is worth considering whether $10 million per VSL is correct. Indeed, if value of saved life is less than $5.85m, social distancing leads to worse outcomepic.twitter.com/4CLU0Ncuri
US HHS estimate a life-year saved worth about $500K (https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/242926/HHS_RIAGuidance.pdf#page=26 …), and with 7.8 life years saved per corona case (https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/economic-cost-of-flattening-the-curve/ …), that suggests a benefit of about $3.8m per life, meaning that social distancing delivers worse outcomes
The paper is very interesting and well done. It shows us that while there is definitely many benefits to be had to "flattening the curve", lock-down policies are easy We need to make sure the lock-down policies keep infections below capacity and also are as low-cost as possible
Social distancing was a costly mistake in the Spanish flu, as that created a 2nd wave and the virus mutated into a far deadlier variant between the 2 waves and so killed a much higher percentage of those who had managed to distance themselves from the 1st wave, who had immunity.
Thank god one more solid voice. There’s many but muted, some shunned for saying what they believe and social critiques can’t handle a different of opinion! Bjorn, I’m also pissed that this GOV have limited our chance for herd immunity, we need it and controlled H.I would be safe.
Doesn't this "too effective" analysis assume that no further controls can be implemented? A bit simplistic.
It is clear to me that countries like NZ, Taiwan, HK, Australia and Singapore have handled the Covid 19 isolation and social distancing recommended very well. And the expectation will be that any resumption of the loosening of these restrictions will be gradual and measured.
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