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New Science paper: *Strongest* lockdown *not* best. A really successful lockdown means almost no one gets infected in 1st wave, so the 2nd wave becomes almost as bad as not doing anything. 1st wave destroys economy 2nd wave kills just like doing nothing, just half year laterpic.twitter.com/wu9vBYcVYs
Of course, if you continue intermittent lockdown until 2022, you might avoid big death numbers, but eradicates economy. Optimal approach is "moderately effective social distancing" —Sweden approach: Keep infections<capacity, but allow transmission, so next wave much lowerpic.twitter.com/V7tk4WmVrb
I wrote an oped before this study, making somewhat similar pointshttps://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2020/04/09/save-lives-and-avoid-a-catastrophic-recession/#14cab5966f92 …
Bjorn, to the extent we might be already past the need - we will have to wait on serology testing. But - is there any reason to believe this type of infection would spread differently by age than flu or other respiratory? 1/3
In other words, infections in the young may be even more vastly underreported than we previoiusly thought. 25%-33% of the seasonal flu is typically in ages under 20. In high concentrated areas of COVID-19 infections, that is coming back near 1%. 2/3
What is Sweden doing to keep infections below capacity?
Handwashing, avoid social contact if 70+, recommending people to work from home if possible Here it is in Swedish: https://www.krisinformation.se/detta-kan-handa/handelser-och-storningar/20192/myndigheterna-om-det-nya-coronaviruset …
Bjorn - help us out, is this telling us we either have to ? a) have a completely broken world economy, no social life etc (and the risks that brings eg WW3) Or b) accept millions of deaths to maintain sole sense of “life as we know it”
Bjorn - could you confirm the date when Sweden recommended its limited lockdown for citizens please? How many confirmed cases/deaths at this date? What is population density of Stockholm? What are your other most densely populated areas?
Summary of Swedish measures helpfully published in English here: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/ …
Sweden have just revised their stance because they now realise it was a mistake
Nope, not true.
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