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New Science study on corona shows that we might need social distancing into 2022 (either continuously or intermittently) Such an approach is entirely unsustainable — it is impossible to imagine people being willing to accept that https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793 …pic.twitter.com/NgGBey0Yri
New Science paper: *Strongest* lockdown *not* best. A really successful lockdown means almost no one gets infected in 1st wave, so the 2nd wave becomes almost as bad as not doing anything. 1st wave destroys economy 2nd wave kills just like doing nothing, just half year laterpic.twitter.com/wu9vBYcVYs
Of course, if you continue intermittent lockdown until 2022, you might avoid big death numbers, but eradicates economy. Optimal approach is "moderately effective social distancing" —Sweden approach: Keep infections<capacity, but allow transmission, so next wave much lowerpic.twitter.com/V7tk4WmVrb
I wrote an oped before this study, making somewhat similar pointshttps://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2020/04/09/save-lives-and-avoid-a-catastrophic-recession/#14cab5966f92 …
The study mentions vaccines only in by-passing. Given the incentive to find one, there is a very good chance several will be available by the end of the year, or at least soon after that.
yes, it expects that a vaccine will likely be able to be here by 2022, which is why we don't have to extend social distancing beyond 2022
Yup, not gonna happen. We can measure in days how long my wife holds out before she goes crazy and takes her chances with the virus.
They won’t .the public wants fast action news and will be bored of the virus and want to move on ..I know it’s crazy !
What about change the lockdown to 55yo+ and drop pension age to 55yo. Then just add programs for people with health issues and these 2 groups isolate till vaccine?
Has anyone yet noticed the data set they used? Which virus(es) were used to inform their simulation and which *one* was not?
´John, ¿cuándo son los funerales de la industria de eventos masivos?
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