THREAD re the "everybody's-got-it" school of covid truthery, which my story this wk in @TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news …, based on study by @inschool4life & @Alex_Washburne, supports. Most impt pt is that these results do NOT mean we should end/loosen lockdowns now/soon. 1/n
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By now, every1 following this knows that only a minority of people w/ covid-19 are getting tested, & that a substantial share have mild or totally asymptomatic cases. The official case-fatality rate (CFR), which is deaths divided by CONFIRMED cases, of 6% is obv way too high. 2/n
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To estimate infection-fatality rate (IFR), which is deaths divided by total infections, have 2 estimate number of undiagnosed cases. Evidence is dribbling in that it's v hi. A review: 1. Entire pop of Italian town of Vò was tested by Mar 6. 3% infected https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-vo-euganeo-blanket-testing-veneto-luca-zaia-a9411201.html … 3/n
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2. Serology on 1/3 of the pop of Italian town of Robbio, found 13-14% w/ antibodies to covid-19, 30x num of confirmed cases https://www.unz.com/isteve/even-a-town-in-northern-italy-is-still-pretty-far-from-herd-immunity …. 3. Serology on 1K people around Copenhagen found 2.7% w/ antibodies, despite hi false negative rate https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 … 4/n
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Just fyi, your Danish ref actually says that the true rate of infection is 30-80x of tested: https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 …pic.twitter.com/JUj64Gs7dx
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