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Interesting: A new study suggests that the corona death rate is similar to the flu. The reason hospitals are overflowing could be that it has "crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050542v1.full.pdf … https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news …pic.twitter.com/6JqsbmHLim
Just to emphasize, this is just *one* estimate, and we don't have the full picture yet. Certainly, corona is still a terrible disease that deserves a strong policy response, including reducing infectiousness and safeguarding the vulnerable
I don't understand how a disease can be both "similar to the flu", and at the same time "is so contagious" that it kills people by "cramming" them into hospital in a different way to the flu.
Because the population is in no way immunized against this type of virus, while we've seen the (seasonal) flu for millennia where it's mostly slight variations from year to year. For some of those variations vaccines are introduced and our immune systems are better equipped.
It uses influenza cases as a proxy to inform model For COVID-19 rather than sampling. Likely to be an overestimate by at least an order of magnitude. Every large-scale random testing exercise has shown a very small proportion of the relevant population to be infected.
Do the math. 5820 COVID-19 deaths already in NYC. Population 8.4 million. 0.1% IFR requires 70% of NYC residents to be infected already. And it’s likely there is an undercount of home and street deaths. This paper is essentially predicting 100% NYC infection. Junk.
NYC CFR is 9.3%. Cali CFR 3.2%. Texas 2.3%. Maybe NYC is not a great data point for modeling the country.
What is missing when making a comparison to flu rates is that vaccines have suppressed the real influence flu can have. In spite of vaccines the 65+ are still susceptible to higher death rates regardless of being vaccinated. What we are now seeing is a virus without vaccinationspic.twitter.com/yAJ76RUNAT
Vaccines cause higher vulnerability, they don't really do anything useful, instead, quite the opposite.
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