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Here is the UN Climate Panel estimate of damages, updated by Nobel Laureate Nordhaus https://www.nber.org/reporter/2017number3/nordhaus.html …pic.twitter.com/1qnqyHp1DJ
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Unbridled alarmism: No, our current trajectory is about 4°C, not 6°C No, 4°C is not the end-of-the-world, it is a problem, equivalent to reducing average income by about 3-4% in 2100 (when OECD will be 200-500% as rich as today and Africa 300-2,200% richer)https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1151540563323305985 …
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Here is the UN Climate Panel estimates of incomes https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681?via%3Dihub … OECD/Africa accessible here: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd pic.twitter.com/biIVNitZwy
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The new 1.5°C UN Climate Panel report quoted the cost of 1.5°C at 0.3% of GDP by 2100 2°C at 0.5% of GDP by 2100 3.6°C at 2.6% of GDP by 2100 Problem, not by ANY standards end-of-world p256, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/ …pic.twitter.com/fYlND1Vk4g
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IF we could be sure that those GDP impact estimates are correct, we needn’t worry. BUT: 1) we can’t be sure and there’s significant tail risk 2) these estimates look dubious at best, considering the non-linear environmental impacts:https://www.themintmagazine.com/nordhauss-nobel-prize-is-safe-but-the-world-isnt …
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And in addition to that, human displacement, habitat destruction and extinction of species are moral problems which are not well captured in total world GDP impact assessments, but nevertheless have a „price“ that also economists shouldn’t ignore!
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Then he's wrong. Anyone could be wrong. Not sure what the point of the question is.
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?! Where ist that coming from? The IPCC AR5 (p1189) projects <1m until 2100 under RCP8.5 (effectively 4° by 2100). Even by 2500(!) the high-end of estimates is <7m in the highest emission scenario!
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What will 3% of global GDP be in 2100 and who will pay that cost, who will have been paying all along, because it's not like this is a bill we are going to get at the end of our meal, in 2100.
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If you're asking what it will be in actual dollars, no one knows. But 3% is obviously only a small fraction of GDP. Under even conservative estimates of economic growth, GDP in 2100 will be many times greater than it is today.
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