Bjorn LomborgVarmennettu tili

Even if Stiglitz had used the more appropriate measure (e.g. Aon) of $88bn/yr in weather-related damages over past decade, that is 0.48% GDP/yr, and still it is *all* weather damage, most of which obviously would remain without climate change http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20190122-ab-if-annual-weather-climate-report-2018.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VuXtDu2rFa

Indeed, we know that most damage comes from hurricanes, and although cost have dramatically increased, this is because of more people (Florida coastal population increased 67x since 1900, US 4.3x) that are richer When correcting for that, no increase https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0184.1 …pic.twitter.com/jQzqvgcb2C

Indeed, this is also true globally, where weather disaster costs are *not* increasing (seemingly slightly decreasing) in share of GDP update of https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2018.1540343 …pic.twitter.com/rIHwFkLASK

Stiglitz other argument is health costs, but unfortunately, he couldn't really be bothered to find any arguments. They are apparently still "being tabulated", but 'trust me, they will run into tens of billions of dollars.'pic.twitter.com/4MlsILXC3p

Well, if it is okay with Stiglitz, I think data is better Here deaths from cold and heat in the US — similar to most other countries. Heat deaths are small and declining (because richer people can afford aircon) whereas cold deaths are big and increasing https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412017310346 …pic.twitter.com/p47WxeVTlc

Then he sums up his argument with a grandfatherly 'prevention is better than treatment', which — as he admits — is just a cliche, not an argumentpic.twitter.com/YZdRmqoblp

So on this basis: - climate costs of 2% GDP, exaggerated 4x and will change almost nothing even if CO₂ cut to zero - unsubstantiated health costs, although cold is killing more and increasing - a cliche on prevention - metaphor on WWII he wants us to spend $trillionspic.twitter.com/wzcwMwFe9J

Yet, another Nobel Laureate who's actually studied climate (and got his Nobel in climate economics), Nordhaus, shows the update of the UN Climate Panel estimate of the cost of climate (these are all the major studies of costs) 2-4% of GDP by 2100 https://www.nber.org/reporter/2017number3/nordhaus.html …pic.twitter.com/IGkt1QEf6a

Stiglitz casually suggests that civilization and our lives are at risk. He has read too much Guardian This is simply untrue. If you read the UN Climate Panel reports, this is not what they say Climate change costs 2-4% of GDP, not the end of the worldpic.twitter.com/qkBUc4XcaE

By the end of the century, average person in world likely 5-10x richer, with African up to 34x, UN scenarios (SSPs) (Inconveniently, richest world is fossil-fuel world SSP5) 2-4% warming costs of incomes 500-1000% higher is NOT existential crisis https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681?via%3Dihub …pic.twitter.com/rbkYcTA5GH

Which is why the Nobel laureate in actual climate economics finds that, yes, we should do something, but not too much: Cost of nothing: 3% Smart policy, reduce temp a bit: 2.3% Go towards Stiglitz, Greta Thunberg etc: 4% and upwards https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20170046 …pic.twitter.com/MkDyjC3cir