Sober scientific findings get less attention than alarming and far-fetched scenarios. That's how we ended up reading headlines about #climate change flooding 187 million people out of their homes. The realistic assumtion is less than 1/600th of that.https://www.wsj.com/articles/examining-the-latest-false-alarm-on-climate-11559256615 …
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The per nation data is important to have though. If the world is much richer but Bangladesh is only a little richer, that's a much different story.
You can see all the UN SSP scenarios here https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=30 … Graph shows Bangladesh per person income in $1000PPP. If we choose the fossil-fuel driven scenario (SSP5), the average Bangladeshi will get $104,000/person in 2100, 25x richer than todaypic.twitter.com/8mmwoywdw8
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Under all of those models, Bangladesh GDP should have been ~300B in 2015 (in 2005 dollars). Predicted 400B by 2020. In reality, Bangladesh GDP although growing fast, is not growing that fast - was more like 200b in current $ (and less in 2005 dollars).pic.twitter.com/unWneWt2mp
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Meanwhile, world GDP per capita has been basically flat since 2011. Most, maybe all, of our increase in GDP has come from increased resource usage (extraction). An exponential increase on that scale will not happen. Even the current rate of extraction is unsustainable.pic.twitter.com/uyydKuujLR
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