I agree this crosses a line to silly. But it seems to this amateur observer that the plausible realities - 1 or 2 sd’s from the mean - are vast. Eg, Ocean acidification’ effects on marine life.https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1099268159482286080 …
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“Most likely” wasn’t my point. Acidification setting off massive ecological changes might be, say, a 10% likelihood but could be a huge deal. It’s not just mean risk but distribution of risks.
Sure, and fair point But small risk of large-scale impacts for almost all policies, if you allow them to go on for 80+ years. (Say, any policy that just marginally increases prob of state breakdown/lawlessness + better access to crispr/bioterrorism⇒catastrophe)
