Climate hysteria Washington Post reporter retweeting claim that ocean acidification could lead to no more saltwater fish with 30 years Yes, problem, but absolutely no support for claim of saltwater fish eradication in UN Climate Panel Report https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap6_FINAL.pdf …https://twitter.com/sarahkaplan48/status/1088989791360831489 …
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And let's keep a sense of proportion: In the only (and very first-draft) assessment of the total impact of ocean acidification on ecosystem services (so much broader than just the impact on fisheries) was: 0.01-0.09% of global GDP Problem, not end-of-world https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161105 …pic.twitter.com/1m4MnqLUC8
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BjornLomborg
"...two effects range from 97 to 301 billion 2014 dollars per year (0.09 - 0.28% of current world GDP). We argue that aquaculture output would not be reduced, due to the high potential for adaptation by this young industry." Which means complete loss of corals is no big deal?
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @MatthewSarker
Corals are included in costs: It counts $2-49bn/yr in the report
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BjornLomborg
I think that's why this is hard to keep a sense of proportion - because things that feel big, (e.g. complete loss of corals reefs), are only a "small" percent of GDP. My question: what DOES count as a big percent of GDP? It's small relative to our sense of numbers. But to build
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @MatthewSarker ja @BjornLomborg
Our intuition a bit, can you give an example of something that IS a big share of GDP? And some intuition behind why?
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @MatthewSarker
A good way to intuit the costs is to look at your own budget Here is an American's budget Notice, that taxes are missing (not as important in the US) https://www.joshuakennon.com/how-the-average-american-family-spends-its-money/ …pic.twitter.com/ckrtoL4feg
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @MatthewSarker
So 0.09% (the high end of acidification impact by 2100) is equivalent to $45 That is what the average worker spend on coffee in less than a monthhttps://abcnews.go.com/GMA/american-coffee-habits-spend-coffee/story?id=16923079 …
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @MatthewSarker
Compare this to what is really important for most people – here from all government budgets from the EU (about 46% of total GDP) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/government-finance-statistics/data/database …pic.twitter.com/j38chHsyl7
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @MatthewSarker
So big ticket issues is social protection (19%), education (5%) and health (7%). These are about 100-200 times more important than acidification. And remember, this is the spending decided by democratically elected governments
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You can also look at the impact in developing countries. We did a project on the cost of problems from 1900-2050 E.g. how much is the cost of NOT having health care, or NOT being able to read? The cost is huge (24% in 1900 of lacking health) https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/scorecard-humanity …
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @MatthewSarker
you can see the short version here as my TED talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uU-LTKOJY9M … (or you can read the Cambridge University Press book)
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BjornLomborg ja @MatthewSarker
Here are the costs in 2019 lack of health costs 9% of GDP (we would be 9% richer, if all had good health) lack nutrition, education and gender inequality costs about 6% eachpic.twitter.com/USydBCuGUh
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