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Contrary to new paper, that shows *when correcting for coastal development* (i.e. the damages if all hurricanes were to hit the US in 2017) there is no trend in damages https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0184.1 …pic.twitter.com/JJGRK0TTh3
And no, future will not get ever worse Even with stronger hurricanes bc climate, damage costs will *decline* from 0.04% of global GDP today to 0.02% of in 2100 (Had there been no global warming, damages would have declined further to 0.01% by 2100.) https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1357 …pic.twitter.com/k4O6Jdp6mT
Basically Pielke's fallacy on steroids. Does not consider better building codes, forecasting etc. Given adaptive improvements constant damages as functions of GDP means storms are getting worse.
It is true! Weather models show clearly that off shore wind slows hurricanes to non-danger leves. The future is bright
On the other hand this made me a bit gloomy and I thought it was sort of what you’ve been saying https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/william-vollmann-carbon-ideologies/568309/ …
In the sense that nothing we are doing right now makes much difference.
Shameless self-promotion.
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