No, short-term econometric models are very uncertain, long-term structural models much less so. Also, most uncertainty taken out bc *difference* between run with and without sea level rise, so all other uncertainty (almost) cancelled out
Worst case flooding impact over next 200 years (RCP8.5): GDP -0.25%, welfare -0.31% Problem, but certainly not end-of-world If you forget to include adaptation, in 2200 it is not -0.11% but -4.5% New paper: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24918 pic.twitter.com/aVdCm1L5gp
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We’re not talking about environmentalism though (mass extinction etc). Only about humanism, the effect on humans
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Good to know. Although, there is also a human cost of having to leave/abandon your former home or see it swallowed by the sea. Also, the costs will not be spread equally. Some nations' economies will struggle more with the costs. Some individuals may be made destitute or drowned.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Yeah, but destruction of capital and the economic activity to "rebuild" entire towns appears accretive to GDP if you don't account for the millions of households losing their homes and office skyscrapers. Terrorism doesn't impact GDP much either, why bother funding security?
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#NotThePoint ... This is another example of what sometimes gives Economists a bad name... Namely, a misunderstanding of the problem at hand, and a usage of the wrong equation to prove the wrong thing with the wrong model.
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now do how many people will die
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Flooding in the short time frame is never mostly flooding but political economy.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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