Disingenuous use of indexing & selection of dates. The Lost Decade started at the end of 1991, yet you index to 1990 - Japan saw strong GDP per capita growth between 1990 and 1991. If you index to 1991, Japan reaches 107.6, not 111. If you index to 1992, Japan reaches 106.8. 1/3
Bored airport thoughts: Japan's 'lost decade' was, on a per capita basis, far, far better than the UK's last 10yrspic.twitter.com/y8fLuEdbdP
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Your UK index starts pre-recession (a high point) and only reaches 103.6. If you index 2008 to 2018(f) it reaches 105.6. If you index the 2009 low point (as you did for Japan) to 2019(f), then UK reaches 112. 2/3
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So an equivalent 10 year period in the UK is either marginally (not "far, far") worse, but with consistent year-on-year improvement (unlike Japan) or, perhaps, "far, far better" than Japan's. 3/3
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Bit uncharitable to jump to the assumption that I'm being disingenuous! Selected the year prior to the financial downturn in each case, wasn't premeditated. Don't think indexing to 1990 and 2009 really comparable since only one is a trough - '90 only a low on a '90-00 series
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My view is that 'what's GDP like relative to prior to the financial crisis which caused the previous path to change' is the interesting Q in terms of comparison
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Buddy if you love Asia so much why don’t you go and live there
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Genuinely don't know if you're joking
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Feel very "harangued" by those sorts of comments so I very much hope it was a joke
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I think it was a joke, looking at his profile.
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We will never know
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Constant 2010 USD terms though. Obviously won't totally remove the effect
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But Japan’s lost decade lasted a lot longer than a decade...
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Indeed. UK may look a lot more impressive 20yrs after the crisis! We'll see
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I often wonder about the Lost Decade; when the alleged bad times last a lot longer than the boom times, which is really the aberration?
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Helps that Japan's pop grew only 2.4% over 1990s. UK's grew 7.7% in last 10y. (That has nothing to do with shape of that curve. But still)
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I'm not sure on this. In the UK's case if we're assuming pop. growth is in no small part low-paid migrants (not unreasonable as an assumption) fair, but declining labour force in Japan would depress GDP per cap too. Magnitudes not immediately obvious to me.
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Real Gdp at ppp per working age person should be the metric.
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UK per capita GDP is massively overlooked - something I'm grateful to
@sjwrenlewis for highlighting.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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There was no "lost decade", outside of financial and property markets. As I wrote here https://reut.rs/2QnNIRm - Japan has done fine, and that's with a huge decline in the number of young workers.
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