The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
Odgovor korisnicima @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i sljedećem broju korisnika:
An excellent question for predictions, but should probably be a little narrower for easier testing. I'd suggest: Repeat this question a few times for various at-risk areas (i.e. California fire country & Florida Hurricane country) and various time-frames (5/10/15 yrs)
15:43 - 20. sij 2020.
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