First thing is the advantage is some what small in terms of runs above outs. You can also see that the use of the bangs differed by player. Bregman used it the most (130 PAs), but didn't really see a huge advantage vs. PAs without a bang.
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We can also look at pitch-level. Same deal--different usage by player and very difference results. And the differences are quite small relative to use.pic.twitter.com/v1NCBV12jn
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At a macro-level, the pitch-level difference was +.002 and the PA difference was actually -.01 runs. Thanks to
@adams_at for the amazing data collection workPrikaži ovu nit -
This was a very quick look, and I think it would be interesting to look at differences by pitch type, pitcher identity, and other factors to tease out the actual effect
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And had I actually had time today to scan Twitter more I would have seen the always great analysis by
@No_Little_Plans, where we seem to be finding similar net effectshttps://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/56750/moonshot-the-banging-scheme-hurt-the-astros-as-much-as-it-helped-them/ …Prikaži ovu nit
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Isn't the number of bangs just related to the scouting report on that particular player indicating throwing more off speed pitches to them is the game plan? Most respond with laying off that pitch so no success will be indicated. Instead they sit on the fastball
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Yes and no. The run values are at the pitch level, so taking a breaking ball out of the zone gives you some positive value. That said, the PA-level would pick up the effect since it simply compares PAs where there was a bang at some point vs. those where there wasn't.
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This is great work and exactly the type of analysis I hoped would happen. Thank you.
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Thank YOU for pulling the data together and making it available. It's phenomenal.
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I'll take this as evidence that Altuve was greatly helped by cheating and if he was getting signals from another method (i.e. buzzers) than it's likely it greatly helped him. I appreciate that sign stealing helps batters differently. Altuve seems to like the help.
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Except the magnitude of the effect was still pretty small. If he go the same boost across all his PAs that year I think it would've only lifted him 2-3% overall.
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