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BillHanage's profile
Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
Verified account
@BillHanage

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Bill HanageVerified account

@BillHanage

Assoc Prof at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and Gooner. Currently cosplaying Dr Rieux in some weird re-enactment of La Peste. Tweets are personal

iPhone: 51.510544,-0.133636
ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/about/Faculty/…
Joined February 2009

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    Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

    There is a new ‘variant’ clearly identified today, P.1. And it is worth saying a little about what we have learned about it, and from the variants we have identified so far https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586 … 1/quite_a_few

    8:11 PM - 12 Jan 2021
    • 343 Retweets
    • 687 Likes
    • @earthprairie #ZeroCovid #COVIDisAirborne adi azar Ballin Swag Taker Gustavo Lacerda em Recife Praying🙏for a Re-United States of America montserrat compte Steph Dr. Dalilah Restrepo E Wagner 🌹
    13 replies 343 retweets 687 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        First these are not simple ‘mutants’. Mutations happen all the time and most mean nothing much and either persist at low levels or are removed by selection. The variants are characterized by *multiple* mutations – one of the reasons we call them variants and not mutants 2/n

        2 replies 42 retweets 239 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        Those multiple mutations are in parts of the genomes that are not exactly the same, but they overlap to a really pretty marked degree (esp the receptor binding domain). This looks like convergent evolution in which different lineages find the same solution by different routes 3/n

        2 replies 31 retweets 177 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        (Think bats and birds and their wings for an eg of far more distantly related things coming to a similar solution. One of my rules of evolution is there's usually more than one way to skin a cat, and we can learn from the different ways evolution has skinned cats in the past) 4/n

        4 replies 17 retweets 134 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        The variants we are thinking about now all arose independently, but they have things in common. Notably a mutation in the spike protein at the 501 amino acid position. We write it N501Y as shorthand 5/n

        1 reply 28 retweets 150 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        Now N501Y is a mutation that has been reported lots of times, because it has happened lots of times (the many millions of cases worldwide do provide the opportunity to mutate) but hasn’t always taken off. Why not if it is allegedly so awesome? (<-rhetorical question) 6/n

        2 replies 19 retweets 132 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        It is worth noting that in each of the currently identified variants, this mutation exists alongside *many* others in the same protein and elsewhere in the genome. Almost like it’s not strong enough on its own and needs its friends for support 7/n

        2 replies 19 retweets 126 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        This is a comment on a couple things in evolution. First if a mutation happens all the time and is good, why is it not everywhere already? It should have outcompeted everything. One possibility why not is, it has negative impacts too and there is a trade off 8/n

        2 replies 22 retweets 130 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        And the fact that mutations at one place in a protein have an impact depending on what else is going on in the protein. They can and do interact. A mutation might be awesome in one context, and meh in another 9/n

        2 replies 16 retweets 132 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        It is telling that all the variants reported so far contain *many* mutations over expectations. It suggests quite strongly that the regular rate of evolution is not equal to the task of producing them. That said, they *have* emerged so how did that happen? 10/n

        1 reply 19 retweets 131 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        Well they don’t emerge often. There are certainly more than the 3 identified to date, yet to be found. But how many millions of infections have happened in the meantime since the start of the pandemic? 11/n

        1 reply 16 retweets 118 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        In some contexts, like this (which I worked on w many smarter people) the clock rate (sort of but not quite the same as the mutation rate) is clearly faster in patients who are chronically infected. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364 … 12/n

        3 replies 39 retweets 166 likes
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      13. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        This is reasonable. For the virus to survive in a host it needs to adapt which drives a higher clock rate. So the ‘variants’ may have spent time evolving in a context like that. Not necessarily *that*one (chronically infected patients) but one w similar selective pressures 13/n

        2 replies 15 retweets 136 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        And variants matter. Look at the UK. Not just now but over the next month which I expect to be terrible (please do check back – will be very surprised if I am wrong). B.1.1.7 is rampant now and the consequences will be horrific 14/n

        3 replies 71 retweets 245 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 12 Jan 2021

        But the crucial message remains that this is a respiratory virus with ways to control it. There are countries that *have* controlled it. If yours has not, ask why not. Those who cannot work from home deserve protection too, and that starts with keeping transmission low 15/end

        11 replies 212 retweets 708 likes
        Show this thread
      16. End of conversation

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