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BillHanage's profile
Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
Bill Hanage
Verified account
@BillHanage

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Bill HanageVerified account

@BillHanage

Assoc Prof at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and Gooner. Currently cosplaying Dr Rieux in some weird re-enactment of La Peste. Tweets are personal

iPhone: 51.510544,-0.133636
ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/about/Faculty/…
Joined February 2009

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    Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

    Tony Fauci says the US death toll is ‘going to be very disturbing’, even when you consider the 120k+ lives lost already. He’s right. I would optimistically estimate that the final number will be closer to 1 million, if we are lucky 🧵1/nhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-fauci-senate-states-reverse-reopening …

    7:37 PM - 30 Jun 2020
    • 494 Retweets
    • 948 Likes
    • AndyDentPerth Mariamalia Cob Diane G Benjamin Hendricks natalia davydova Mom Skelton 🇺🇸 vic moore Alasdair Mackenzie 🌹👷‍♀️🧢🌈🗽🇨🇦⚖️🔥 Antifa BLM
    60 replies 494 retweets 948 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        To get a hold on the problem all we need to do is these CDC stats. If 20M infections produce 120K deaths, then how many more would we expect in order to generate enough infection and immunity to slow the pandemic? 2/nhttps://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/25/883520249/cdc-at-least-20-million-americans-have-had-coronavirus-heres-who-s-at-highest-ri …

        2 replies 37 retweets 140 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        Well the ‘herd immunity; threshold beyond which immunity is expected to reduce transmission is about 60%. Let’s be generous and reduce it to 50% OK (quick google) that would be about 170M people infected. Let's do some arithmetic 3/n

        3 replies 19 retweets 114 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        If 20M infections have already led to 125K deaths, we expect 170M to result in more than one million deaths over the pandemic in the US. This is an optimistic assessment. Reasons and caveats follow 4/n

        7 replies 56 retweets 176 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        While this calculation is crude. For eg it takes no account of the fact that risk of death climbs spectacularly with age and comorbidities. Nowhere has insulated those groups at risk from groups not at risk. So that doesn’t work 5/n

        4 replies 18 retweets 122 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        And the pandemic so far has been shockingly concentrated in communities less able to protect themselves. But there are both many more such communities, and many others that have yet to realize the virus matters for them too 6/n

        3 replies 22 retweets 111 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        The numbers we need to get infected to obtain population immunity might be lower because of host heterogeneity in transmission rates (a reasonable argument). I hear you. I reduced the herd immunity threshold from 65% to 50% which is generous. Happy? 7/n

        4 replies 17 retweets 106 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        Moreover 50% herd immunity neglects to mention that this only marks the point that, in an unmitigated outbreak, transmission starts to decline due to population immunity. Transmission will not completely stop at this point. It will keep on, declining until it burns out 8/n

        2 replies 22 retweets 113 likes
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      9. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        So Infection will not stop once transmission declines because of immunity. It will carry on. 50% of Americans infected is a minimum. I’m assuming the best immunity, and no ‘overshoot’. It’s spectacularly optimistic. The reality could be much larger. 9/n

        6 replies 22 retweets 108 likes
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      10. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        And then we should not forget the part of the picture that includes milder manifestations with long term consequences. About 10% of younger people with symptoms will be living with this a long long time https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/28/coronavirus-long-haulers-infectious-disease-testing … 10/n

        3 replies 52 retweets 166 likes
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      11. Bill Hanage‏Verified account @BillHanage 30 Jun 2020

        How can I put this? Someone you know is likely to die from this (I can already think of multiple examples). Going forward, how do we stop more of that happening? Easy. Stop transmission. Stop blowing on the embers. It's epidemiology, not rocket science 11/end

        21 replies 84 retweets 374 likes
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      12. End of conversation

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